Abstract | PURPOSE: To compare the fits of various normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models to a common set of late rectal toxicity data, with the aim of identifying the best model for predicting late rectal injury after irradiation. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Late toxicity data from 128 prostate cancer patients treated on protocol with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy at The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (UTMDACC) were analyzed. The dose-volume histogram for total rectal volume, including contents, was obtained for each patient, and the presence or absence of Grade 2 or worse rectal bleeding within 2 years of treatment was scored. Five different NTCP models were fitted to the data using maximum likelihood analysis: the Lyman model, the mean dose model, a parallel architecture model, and models based on either a cutoff dose or a cutoff volume. RESULTS: All five of the NTCP models considered provided very similar fits to the UTMDACC rectal bleeding data. In particular, none of the more highly parameterized models (the four-parameter parallel model, three-parameter Lyman model, or three-parameter cutoff dose and volume models) provided a better fit than the simplest of the models, the two-parameter NTCP model describing rectal bleeding as a probit function of mean dose to rectum. CONCLUSION: No dose-volume response model has yet been identified that provides a better description of the UTMDACC rectal toxicity data than the mean dose model. Because this model has relatively low predictive accuracy, the need to identify a better model remains.
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Authors | Susan L Tucker, Rex Cheung, Lei Dong, H Helen Liu, Howard D Thames, Eugene H Huang, Deborah Kuban, Radhe Mohan |
Journal | International journal of radiation oncology, biology, physics
(Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys)
Vol. 59
Issue 2
Pg. 353-65
(Jun 01 2004)
ISSN: 0360-3016 [Print] United States |
PMID | 15145148
(Publication Type: Journal Article)
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Topics |
- Dose-Response Relationship, Radiation
- Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage
(radiotherapy)
- Humans
- Male
- Models, Statistical
- Probability
- Prostatic Neoplasms
(radiotherapy)
- Radiation Injuries
(complications)
- Radiotherapy, Conformal
(adverse effects)
- Rectal Diseases
(etiology)
- Rectum
(radiation effects)
- Retrospective Studies
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