Occult
metastases are detected in 10-15% of patients during exploratory
laparotomy for
pancreatic cancer. This study developed and externally validated a model to predict occult
metastases in patients with potentially resectable
pancreatic cancer. Model development was performed within the Dutch
Pancreatic Cancer Audit, including all patients operated for
pancreatic cancer (January 2013-December 2017). Multivariable logistic regression analysis based on the Akaike Information Criteria was performed with intraoperative pathologically proven
metastases as the outcome. The model was externally validated with a cohort from the University Hospital of Verona (January 2013-December 2017). For model development, 2262 patients were included of whom 235 (10%) had occult
metastases, located in the liver (n = 143, 61%), peritoneum (n = 73, 31%), or both (n = 19, 8%). The model included age (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03), BMI (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.99), preoperative
nutritional support (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.01-2.74),
tumor diameter (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.04-2.45),
tumor composition (solid vs. cystic) (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.20-4.35), and indeterminate lesions on preoperative imaging (OR 4.01, 95% CI 2.16-7.43). External validation showed poor discrimination with a C-statistic of 0.56. Although some predictor variables were significantly associated with occult
metastases, the model performed insufficiently at external validation.