Abstract | Background: Methods: This retrospective study included patients who underwent pretreatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with histologically confirmed primary rectal adenocarcinoma from November 2012 to April 2018. Patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups according to the median values of CEA/Diapath (CEA to pathological diameter), CEA/DiaMRI (CEA to MRI tumor diameter), and CEA/VolMRI (CEA to MRI tumor volume). Cox regression analysis was utilized to determine the prognostic value of CEA, CEA/Diapath, CEA/DiaMRI, and CEA/VolMRI. Stepwise regression was used to establish nomograms for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Predictive performance was estimated by using the concordance index (C-index) and area under curve receiver operating characteristic (AUC). Results: A total of 343 patients [median age 58.99 years, 206 (60.06%) males] were included. After adjusting for patient-related and tumor-related factors, CEA/VolMRI was superior to CEA, CEA/Diapath, and CEA/DiaMRI in distinguishing high-risk from low-risk patients in terms of DFS [hazard ratio (HR) =1.83; P=0.010] and OS (HR =1.67; P=0.048). Subanalysis revealed that CEA/VolMRI stratified high death risk in CEA-negative individuals (HR =2.50; P=0.038), and also stratified low recurrence risk in CEA-positive individuals (HR =2.06; P=0.024). In the subanalysis of stage II or III cases, the highest HRs and the smallest P values were observed in distinguishing high-risk from low-risk patients according to CEA/VolMRI in terms of DFS (HR =2.44; P=0.046 or HR =2.41; P=0.001) and OS (HR =1.96; P=0.130 or HR =2.22; P=0.008). The nomograms incorporating CEA/VolMRI showed good performance, with a C-index of 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.79] for DFS and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.80) for OS. Conclusions: Higher CEA/VolMRI was associated with worse DFS and OS. CEA/VolMRI was superior to CEA, CEA/Diapath, and CEA/DiaMRI in predicting DFS and OS. Pretreatment CEA/VolMRI may facilitate risk stratification and treatment decision-making.
|
Authors | Zhiming Zeng, Decai Ma, Pan Zhu, Kexin Niu, Shuai Fu, Xiaohui Di, Junying Zhu, Peiyi Xie |
Journal | Journal of gastrointestinal oncology
(J Gastrointest Oncol)
Vol. 14
Issue 6
Pg. 2395-2408
(Dec 31 2023)
ISSN: 2078-6891 [Print] China |
PMID | 38196531
(Publication Type: Journal Article)
|
Copyright | 2023 Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology. All rights reserved. |