Abstract | BACKGROUND: METHODS: We conducted a multicentre cohort study on patients with SLE and used a directed acyclic graph-based analysis strategy. Details of GC therapy, aPLs status, other drug administration and other SLE-related characteristics were collected. ONFH occurrence during follow-up was determined by magnetic resonance imaging. Multivariable logistic regression and generalized estimating equation models were performed to assess their effects on ONFH, and a simplified scoring system comprising these factors for short- and medium-term SLE-ONFH prediction was developed by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. RESULTS: Of 449 SLE patients with a median follow-up duration of 5.3 years, 41 (9.1%) developed ONFH. Independently risk factors of SLE-ONFH including: average daily GC dose with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 1.1 and 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.0-1.1; GC therapy duration (3-5 years: aOR 3.3, 95% CI 1.4-7.8; >5 years: aOR 8.0, 95% CI 3.3-19.4); initial intravenous GC (aOR 4.4, 95% CI 1.9-10.1); positive aPLs (aOR 2.8, 95% CI 1.4-5.8); and Arterial hypertension secondary to GC usage (aOR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4-19.1). And we successfully developed the simplified scoring system (SCORE model) with an area under the curve of 0.88 (95% CI 0.82-0.94). CONCLUSION: Based on the risk factors involved in the development of SLE-ONFH, a novel SCORE model was developed, which might be helpful for risk stratification of SLE-ONFH in clinical practice.
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Authors | Shengbao Chen, Qianying Cai, Yanjun Xu, Qiong Fu, Yong Feng, Xiaoxiang Chen, Shengming Dai, Dongbao Zhao, Ce Zhan, Weidong Xu, Jiwei Wang, Yang Wang, Jinming Yu, Chunde Bao, Changqing Zhang |
Journal | Therapeutic advances in musculoskeletal disease
(Ther Adv Musculoskelet Dis)
Vol. 13
Pg. 1759720X211002677
( 2021)
ISSN: 1759-720X [Print] England |
PMID | 33854569
(Publication Type: Journal Article)
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Copyright | © The Author(s), 2021. |