Connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) is an important mediator of renal allograft
fibrosis, and urinary CTGF (CTGFu) levels correlate with the development of human allograft interstitial
fibrosis. We evaluated the predictive value of CTGF
protein expression in 160 kidney transplant recipients with paired protocol biopsies at 3 months and 5 years after
transplantation. At month 3 and year 1, CTGFu was measured using ELISA, and biopsies were immunohistochemically stained for CTGF, with semiquantitative scoring of tubulointerstitial CTGF-positive area (CTGFti). Predictors of interstitial
fibrosis and tubular
atrophy (IF/TA) severity at 5 years were donor age [OR 1.05 (1.02-1.08), P = 0.001], female donor [OR 0.40 (0.18-0.90), P = 0.026], induction
therapy [OR 2.76 (1.10-6.89), P = 0.030], and CTGFti >10% at month 3 [OR 2.72 (1.20-6.15), P = 0.016]. In subgroups of patients with little histologic damage at 3 months [either ci score 0 (n = 119), IF/TA score ≤1 (n = 123), or absence of IF/TA, interstitial
inflammation, and tubulitis (n = 45)], consistent predictors of progression of chronic histologic damage by 5 years were donor age, induction
therapy, CTGFti >10%, and CTGFu. These results suggest that, even in patients with favorable histology at 3 months, significant CTGF expression is often present which may predict accelerated accumulation of histologic damage.