Model for end-stage liver disease versus the Child-Pugh score in predicting the post-transplant 3-month and 1-year mortality in a cohort of Chinese recipients.

Abstract

PURPOSE:

This study evaluated the performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in predicting post-transplant survival in a cohort of Chinese patients, and compared its predictive ability with that of the Child-Pugh score.

METHODS:

The study enrolled 117 adult Chinese patients undergoing liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases from January 1998 to January 2007 to evaluate the baseline characteristics and outcomes.

RESULTS:

In a median follow-up duration of 90 weeks (range 0.2-373 weeks), 30 patients died. The 3-month and 1-year mortality rates of recipients in group 1 (MELD score <28) were 1.1% and 5.6%, in group 2 (MELD score 28-38) 18.8% and 50.0%, and in group 3 (MELD score >38) 91.7% and 91.7%, respectively. A statistical difference was observed in the mortality rates between the three groups (P < 0.001). At 3 months, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the MELD (0.950) was significantly higher than that of the Child-Pugh score (0.810; P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS:

Both the MELD and Child-Pugh score are valid models to predict the short-term or medium-term outcome of Chinese recipients undergoing liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases. The MELD is superior to the Child-Pugh score in predicting the 3-month mortality post-transplantation.

• Authors: Zhiyong Guo, Xiaoshun He, Linwei Wu, Weiqiang Ju, Anbin Hu, Qiang Tai, Dongping Wang, Yi Ma, Guodong Wang, Xiaofeng Zhu, Jiefu Huang
• Journal: Surgery today (Surg Today) Vol. 40 Issue 1 Pg. 38-45 ( 2010) ISSN: 1436-2813 [Electronic] Japan
• PMID: 20037838 (Publication Type: Comparative Study, Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't, Validation Study)

Topics

• Adult
• Aged
• Area Under Curve
• China (epidemiology)
• Cohort Studies
• Confidence Intervals
• End Stage Liver Disease (mortality, surgery)
• Female
• Health Status Indicators
• Humans
• Kaplan-Meier Estimate
• Liver Transplantation (mortality, statistics & numerical data)
• Male
• Middle Aged
• Models, Theoretical
• Prognosis
• ROC Curve
• Retrospective Studies
• Statistics, Nonparametric
• Time Factors
• Young Adult