Prediction of mesothelioma and lung cancer in a cohort of asbestos exposed workers.

Abstract

BACKGROUND:

Several papers have reported state-wide projections of mesothelioma deaths, but few have computed these predictions in selected exposed groups.

OBJECTIVE:

To predict the future deaths attributable to asbestos in a cohort of railway rolling stock workers.

METHODS:

The future mortality of the 1,146 living workers has been computed in term of individual probability of dying for three different risks: baseline mortality, lung cancer excess, mesothelioma mortality. Lung cancer mortality attributable to asbestos was calculated assuming the excess risk as stable or with a decrease after a period of time since first exposure. Mesothelioma mortality was based on cumulative exposure and time since first exposure, with the inclusion of a term for clearance of asbestos fibres from the lung.

RESULTS:

The most likely range of the number of deaths attributable to asbestos in the period 2005-2050 was 15-30 for excess of lung cancer, and 23-35 for mesothelioma.

CONCLUSION:

This study provides predictions of asbestos-related mortality even in a selected cohort of exposed subjects, using previous knowledge about exposure-response relationship. The inclusion of individual information in the projection model helps reduce misclassification and improves the results. The method could be extended in other selected cohorts.

• Authors: Antonio Gasparrini, Anna Maria Pizzo, Giuseppe Gorini, Adele Seniori Costantini, Stefano Silvestri, Cesare Ciapini, Andrea Innocenti, Geoffrey Berry
• Journal: European journal of epidemiology (Eur J Epidemiol) Vol. 23 Issue 8 Pg. 541-6 ( 2008) ISSN: 0393-2990 [Print] Netherlands
• PMID: 18438715 (Publication Type: Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't)

Chemical References

• Asbestos

Topics

• Adult
• Aged
• Aged, 80 and over
• Asbestos (adverse effects)
• Cause of Death (trends)
• Cohort Studies
• Follow-Up Studies
• Forecasting
• Humans
• Italy (epidemiology)
• Logistic Models
• Lung Neoplasms (mortality)
• Male
• Mesothelioma (mortality)
• Middle Aged
• Occupational Diseases (mortality)
• Occupational Exposure (adverse effects)
• Pleural Neoplasms (mortality)
• Railroads
• Registries
• Risk Assessment