Modeling the impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine on HIV infection and death among women and infants in South Africa.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE:

To assess the potential impact over 10 years of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a cohort of 15-year-old adolescent girls in South Africa in terms of HIV infections and deaths prevented in mothers and infants.

METHODS:

A computer simulation was constructed using a population of all 15-year-old adolescent girls in South Africa followed for 10 years. A partially effective vaccine is introduced into this population with the ability to reduce the HIV incidence rates of the adolescents and vertical transmission to their infants through birth and breast-feeding. At the end of this 10 year period, the number of HIV infections and death prevented in adolescents and infants is analyzed.

RESULTS:

Using a 5% HIV incidence rate, a 50% effective vaccine decreases the number of HIV cases among adolescents by 57,653 (28.7%) and the number of cases among infants by 13,765 (28.9%) over 10 years. In addition, assuming a vaccine cost of $20 per dose, the vaccination program can save approximately $120 million for the South African government over 10 years.

CONCLUSION:

A partially effective HIV vaccine has an important role in HIV prevention in adolescents and infants in South Africa irrespective of other public policy implementations.

• Authors: Sam Amirfar, James P Hollenberg, Salim S Abdool Karim
• Journal: Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) (J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr) Vol. 43 Issue 2 Pg. 219-25 (Oct 01 2006) ISSN: 1525-4135 [Print] United States
• PMID: 16951648 (Publication Type: Journal Article, Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.)

Chemical References

• AIDS Vaccines

Topics

• AIDS Vaccines (adverse effects, economics, therapeutic use)
• Adolescent
• Cohort Studies
• Computer Simulation (statistics & numerical data)
• Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Decision Support Techniques
• Female
• HIV Infections (drug therapy, mortality, prevention & control, transmission)
• HIV-1 (immunology)
• Humans
• Immunization Programs (economics, organization & administration)
• Incidence
• Infant
• Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical (prevention & control)
• South Africa (epidemiology)